The call on who will win the battle of the chair in UP 2017 election is really tuff one & it’s a million dollar  question that who will emerge victorious In this forthcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Seeing the past scenario of the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and the state elections of 2007 and 2012 it can be evidently said that any party who forms alliance with INC (Indian National Congress) has been washed off the shore from the scene.

Though politics is a game of uncertainties it wouldn’t be wrong to expect that Mayawati and Mulayam Singh won’t contest elections together.

Due to the whole intolerance issue BJP’s is seen to be taking a beating and the UPites are in no mood to experiment with their political loyalties.

Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have loyal voters amongst the Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits. These parties can play their cards upon these faithful vote banks that constitute for more than 40% of the state’s population. These parties also have a strong leadership at the state which might turn out to be a magical factor for them.

The ruling SP is suffering anti incumbency sentiments and their popularity graph is sliding down manifestly. In one of the surveys its estimated that if elections were held today in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati will emerge as the single largest party & BJP will stand second where as Samajwadi Party will at poor No. 4. As there is still a lots of time before the elections are held in UP, the scenario will definitely see many changes.

Based upon the above assumption it is clear that SP would lose a huge chunk of its vote and the congress too would be wiped off & finally the real fight would be between BSP and BJP.

For BJP the major drawback would be lack of strong leadership at the state level unlike in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Thus if Mayawati is successful in inclining the Dalits , Muslims long with Brahmins and is able to become a sarv samaj leader she could turn out to be the vanquisher.

Though it would be too early to predict anything as of yet still the above forecast could be made with reasonable amount of confidence.

The Congress has become a marginal player in the state and its existence in the state elections can be assumed to be negligible based upon its performance in 2007and 2012 elections.

Rahul Gandhi is turning out to be a spoiled brat for the Gandhians and the entire congress entity. He has failed incontestably to uplift the condition of his own party from 2012 state elections to 2014 Lok Sabha elections in fact the party’s existence slipped further. The vote bank of Congress has shrunk to oblivion.

There is a caveat, though. No matter how much BJP supporters love to see congress fall, its decline harms the NDA. In every election since 2013 it has been evidently established that BJP needs Congress either as a principal antagonist or as an eminent multi-cornered contestant to win an election.

Wherever the Congress is not in scuffle like in Delhi elections or is a part of an alliance as in Bihar the BJP fails to win single handedly. Obviously a Congress mukt election harms BJP. But Narendra Modi factor could play an important role in UP elections as his efforts to make India as an International Brand is getting thumps up from the most of the Indian populace.

by Kanishka

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