US Presidential elections!! It’s far too early to predict the winner for the race to White House. It’s a fight between Democratic Nominee Hillary Clinton, the wife of ex-President Bob Clinton & Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Trump started off in the most divergent and charismatic Republican field in a long time. Every one of those candidates seemed to have known the ropes better to be the president than the Donald. That didn’t matter; he ameliorated the floor with all of them. Donald has shown the country, he is more than of taking down multiple formidable political opponents.

Trump has got a lot of material to work with when it comes to smearing Hillary Clinton. Not that she doesn’t either, but Trump has shown to be more tuned in when calling out his obverse.

But I think what’s most important is that Hillary has always been on the defensive against Donald.

Whatever happens from this point on, the outcome will be historic. Here is a retrospective view of who would effectuate victory in the upcoming elections.

Trump v Clinton is the first presidential contest between New Yorkers since 1944, when the governor of New York, Thomas E Dewey, ran against the comptroller, Franklin D Roosevelt.  Whoever wins this time will become the first New Yorker in office in 71 years when the inauguration takes place next year.

The long years that Hillary Clinton has been on the Washington scene may make it easy to forget one fact: she would be the first female president if elected. She is already the first female candidate for a major US party. She is the most qualified in terms of previous positions (by far), and the most experienced in terms of political tenure. It just seems so right that a woman gets the Presidency right after we elect the first black president. What a progressive moment that would be for America! Clinton also has a significant advantage in name recognition, access to donors, and establishment support.

And then there’s Donald Trump.  Trump holds a commanding lead in the polls.  He offers highly controversial opinions that would lead any other candidate to the exits.  But Trump rises in the polls whenever he opens his mouth.  And he’s definitely far to the right on most issues.  He should be a fringe candidate polling in below 5 percent, but Trump is riding high in the polls, and still rising.  In previous cycles, we’ve seen fringe candidates’ rise in early polling, then peter out. But that hasn’t happened yet in this election.   Trump is definitely the frontrunner, but we’re still a month out from the first caucuses and primaries.  We can’t predict whether his support will hold, or if it is evanescent.

However, many still believe that Trump is a megalomaniac, narcissistic, fascist who will say absolutely anything to win votes, and shows not a single sign of understanding any of the challenges facing the nation or the world. He has a dedicated base of followers for the same reasons that Bernie Sanders does: A substantial portion of the American public realize that a sea change is necessary to fix the problems facing our country, and they’ll get behind anybody who promises that change — regardless of whether he can deliver it.

Donald Trump consistently smears the character of Muslims. He disrespects other minorities, women, judges, even his own party leadership. He vows to build walls and ban the minority communities from the country.

When Obama got re-elected, he had landslide wins in Black (90%), Hispanic (75%) and Asian minorities (60%). And the three minority groups constitute 12%, 18% and 6% of the American population respectively. As Obama won an average of 75% from these three groups, after multiplying 36% of their ratio to the total population, i.e. he had already got 27% of the total votes. He only needed another 24% votes from the white group, which could almost ensure his victory.

As of today Trump has continuously been offending these three minority groups very badly, it is very likely that Clinton will get more votes from these three groups what Obama had gathered, which means she only need less than one fourth votes from the white group, which can almost ensure her a victory.

Additionally, we have to take this fact into consideration that the Democratic Party has had the advantages on female voters. US current president Obama defeated McCain and Romney even though his two opponents did not have speeches obviously offending the female voters. As Trump hurts the female voters so much and Clinton herself is a female, its predicted that the latter would win substantial vote chunk from her fellow sisters.

With three minority groups and female voters possibly turning out to be against Trump, it would not be wrong to assume that Trump’s victory looks quite blink.

Furthermore, till now the mainstream left wing media have not waged a total war against Trump yet. Once they fire with full firepower on Trump’s evildoing and evil speeches all day and the all night, the Republican Party (GOP) will not only lose the white house, but also very likely the senate or even the house.

However, it would be unfair and unjust towards all the contenders to predict anything as of now. Ample time is left for the elections to take place it would be best to wait and watch.


by Kanishka

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